J. Lawler Duggan/For The Washington Post via Getty Images
- Donald Trump could ruin the GOP's chances at retaking the House in 2022, according to Frank Luntz.
- The longtime pollster said Trump's "big lie" could hurt turnout among conservatives.
- "What Donald Trump is saying is actually telling people it's not worth it to vote," Luntz said.
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Frank Luntz, a longtime pollster and political messaging consultant, issued a bold prediction in a recent podcast interview.
"Okay, I haven't said this before," Luntz told New York Times columnist and Recode co-founder Kara Swisher on her podcast "Sway."
"This could cost the Republicans the majority in the House in 2022," Luntz said. "What Donald Trump is saying is actually telling people it's not worth it to vote. Donald Trump single-handedly may cause people not to vote. And he may be the greatest tool in the Democrats' arsenal to keep control of the House and Senate in 2022."
Although many pundits think the GOP has a great chance at regaining the House in 2022 after taking back 13 seats from Democrats in 2020, Luntz argued Trump's "big lie" that the 2020 election was stolen will suppress turnout among the base.
As Insider's Grace Panetta reported recently, many of the recent voting restriction bills in Republican majority state legislatures address specific Trumpian grievances, but they won't necessarily help the GOP win elections.
Luntz has been conducting various focus groups for decades and cut his teeth as Pat Buchanan's pollster in the 1992 presidential race. He's also credited with coining terms such as "death taxes" and "government takeover of healthcare," but he no longer identifies as a Republican.
When Swisher asked Luntz if Trump could win the Republican nomination or even return to the White House after the 2024 election, the ex-GOP pollster gave another firm prediction.
"If Donald Trump runs for president as a Republican, he's the odds-on favorite to win the nomination," he said. "He could never win a general election, but I can't imagine losing a Republican primary. That's how significant he is within the GOP. And yet he's lost all of those crossover voters that would deny him the chance to win in a general election."